Offending and psychiatric disorders from age 20 to 63 among individuals with and without past experience of out-of-home care in Sweden

ICON member Ylva B Almquist published a prospective multi-trajectory cohort study together with Süheyla Seker, Glena Hossein, Olof Bäckman and Lars Brännström.

About the study

Globally, millions of children and adolescents are placed in foster or residential out-of-home care (OHC) due to maltreatment such as neglect or abuse. A considerable number of young people are involved in both the child protection system and the juvenile justice system, leading to substantial annual costs across countries. Individuals with OHC face elevated risks of criminal behavior and poor mental health compared with the majority population. Evidence on how trajectories of offending and psychiatric disorders covary among individuals with experience of OHC is needed.

The study extends prior research by using large-scale Swedish longitudinal register data and applying a person-centered trajectory modeling approach to capture the dynamics nature of psychiatric and offending developmental pathways. This study is based on a cohort of 14,608 individuals (n = 1,319 with OHC experience) born in the Stockholm metropolitan area in 1953 (49% women) from birth to age 63 (2016). Group-based multi-trajectory modeling among those with at least one offense or psychiatric disorder (40.5% of the men, 16.6% of the women) identified four co-occurring trajectories for both sexes.

In this Swedish cohort study, men in particular showed high offending, typically peaking in early adulthood. Smaller groups showed psychiatric disorders and offending decreasing throughout early adulthood and on to retirement (for both men and women), and offending decreasing throughout adulthood (with low psychiatric disorders for men and increasing psychiatric disorders for women). Individuals placed in adolescence and in institutional facilities constitute a high-risk population for the cumulative co-occurrence of offending and psychiatric disorders during early adulthood.

Highlights

Early assessment and tailored attention to needs and risk levels is important when designing long-term care services to mitigate this. Research on underlying mechanisms, and on collaboration between the welfare, justice, and psychiatric care systems, can help to design effective intervention strategies and policies.

Future research should explore the specific systemic and interpersonal characteristics related to care that impact on these trajectories in different countries and various child welfare legislative frameworks.

Publication details

Seker, S., Hossein, G., Bäckman, O., Almquist, Y. B., & Brännström, L. (2025). Offending and psychiatric disorders from age 20 to 63 among individuals with and without past experience of out-of-home care in Sweden: A prospective multi-trajectory cohort study. Development and Psychopathology, 1-15.

Read more: https://doi:10.1017/S095457942510062X

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